Possible October Surprise


According to aircraft spotters and trackers, at least a dozen MC-130H and HC-130N (aerial refueling tanker and combat search and rescue), HC-130P (Special operations infiltration/extraction variant) and AC-130U (gunships) crossed the Atlantic Ocean on September 13 heading eastbound. These aircraft are typically used for a variety of special tasks, including in close cooperation with special operations forces. The last reported stop for the aircraft was Souda Bay [Crete].

It now appears that these aircraft have been staging out of Crete, conducting day and night missions in Libyan airspace. The aircraft operating in the area are likely transporting and supporting special operations troops on the ground who could be running reconnaissance and intelligence gathering operations in Libya. In fact, an unnamed US military official reportedly has said that US special operations forces are in Libya meeting with informants and using signals intelligence and overhead imaging (from UAVs and satellites) to collect information on militant networks in the country.

We might be ramping up for an October surprise – payback for Ambassador Stephens and the three-man security team that perished in Benghazi on September 11th. If so, it would be a relatively benign piece of political theater. God knows if we manage to kill the right people, it would be welcome news. The trick, of course, if it is meant to happen before the election, they’ve got 25 days to identify the shooters, find them, isolate them, and hit them. All in an area where we have few assets close to the ground.

Running foreign assets isn’t easily done – it generally takes time to select them, vet them, contact them, turn them and read them in on their part of the mission. And you still might have some infiltrators (or buyer’s remorse types) who will merely pass your plans along to the other side. Don’t get me wrong – I honestly hope they can get the guys responsible for the attack on our consulate. It’s just an uphill climb to do it in time for the election.

5 thoughts on “Possible October Surprise

  1. How nice. Entirely implausible scenerio, but very clever.

    Maybe it will help with convincing those few undecided to vote for “The Right Guy”. Ha hahaha!

  2. Of course you do.

    When I read the title, “October Surprise” I thought you were going to brag about how well Team Romney is doing in the polls. Imagine my surprise when I read the content of this fantasy you have constructed. Team Romney is getting so much mileage out of the Benghazi mess he doesn’t need Barack Obama’s help to increase his real estate there.

    But I understand your thinking. If Obama orders some kind of “covert action to sneak into Libya and get the bad guys” and he fails, OH BOYS HOWDY! Now THAT will be proof that he’s incapable of handing foreign policy as you all are touting. He’s a miserable failure at it. Romney would be ever so much better at handling world crises. Uh huh.

    So don’t give me this B.S. about “We all hope that if he does this he’ll be successful in capturing the bad guys.” You hope no such thing. Be honest for once. Admit your motive for writing this piece of [fill in the blank].

  3. Well, thank you for your thoughtful comments.  Actually, I do hope that if he goes forward with this as an “October Surprise,” that we do succeed.  I’m an American long before I consider politics.  The whole reason – all of it – that I’m against Obama is what he’s doing to this country.  He doesn’t need to “fail” to fulfill some fantasy that you have about my motivations.  That he would mount a mission for purely political reasons is enough.  And thank you for the “be honest for once” comment, apparently reflecting your view that I am basically dishonest.  This is the name-calling that Liberals jump to when the facts aren’t on their side.  “If you disagree with me, you must be a “racist,” “homophobe,” “misogynist,” “Islamophobe” (fill in your favorite ad hominem), and, apparently, a liar.  I understand that you disagree with me on most political issues, but harbor no assumptions about your honesty or character.  I know you, and know that the ideas you hold are genuine.  

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